The Surging Tide

First Post from a First Timer.

I’ve been working in the international corporate banking game for over 10 years. It’s high paced with tight timelines and heaps of pressure. Years of days, nights & weekends in the office to meet clients’ timelines and provide them with the financing that they need. It’s a competitive game. And it has been a fun one.

But for all the rush it provides, it lacks a certain tangible element. Yes I meet with clients around the world, but at the corporate level it’s all so structured, rehearsed and can be somewhat cold. Even in the office. The banking world is full of ppl who are deeply analytical but lack…a colorful personality.

I figure I must be cut from a different cloth. No starch in these shirts. Always up for a laugh and I don’t take myself too seriously. But one thing about my personality is that I want to continually help and learn.

That’s what I hope this blog will do.

I have a lot of interests, but I have a borderline obsession with finance, the capital markets and desire to help and share. Simple as that. I know financial stuff doesn’t come easy to a lot of folks. I know the daily 24/7 news cycle is full of analysts and pundits touting their arguments and opinions. A lot of noise and fog. And it’s purposely designed for that. To confuse and to overwhelm.

Not here. Here at The Surging Tide we will cut through the noise and provide clarity. We’ll talk personal budgeting, portfolios, stocks, bonds, ETFs. I’ll share with you what activity I’m seeing in the market from the front line.

I’m a value investor at heart. I enjoy the hunt. And I enjoy helping people. It’s a nice combo to have. I commit to share my 20K foot view. I will not overwhelm with too much information. That’s for my day job.

Anyways, hopefully this blog will do just that. Help people. And help me learn more. That’s part of what life is about. Can’t be static. Need to continually progress.

Feel free to send an email with any questions or comments. Maybe even some feedback on this blog. Feedback…as I’ve been conditioned to understand…is a gift!

post

Opportunity. Such an invigorating word. Everyday we’re presented with opportunity. Whether at your job, time with family & friends or time spent working on a project / personal goal of yours. Everyday is a gift and everyday opportunity is presented.

This is especially true in the markets. It’s something I’m always searching for. And I commit to find opportunities for us.

A note from the front lines. I’ll be flying to Calgary, Alberta this week for business. It’s a place I travel to often as a lot of my clients are in the oil & gas space. I know a lot of ppl’s portfolios were hollowed out following the collapse in oil prices that started in 2014. We all became a little complacent with a seemingly sustained $100 oil environment. The new normal, as it were. It’s different this time. But it rarely ever is…especially with commodities.

2015 and 2016 were some tough years for the city and for the wider Canadian oil & gas industry. Oil and Gas servicing companies took it on the chin as E&P companies dialed back their Capex spending and took serious measures to reduce expenses. Lots of jobs lost. Massive contraction in capital deployed. Aside from the larger players, who were better positioned to ride out the down cycle, everyone went into survival mode. Always the case.

But as prices have stabilized, I’ve seen first hand capital flowing back into the sector. It never really left. It was just parked on the sidelines. But it’s not making the headlines. It’s not yet attracting international capital. It’s quiet. It’s Opportunity.

The Canadian Oil & Gas space has unfortunately been branded as heavy / dirty oil, a direct reference to the massive oil sands operations in northwestern Alberta. It has been one of the higher costs of production in the world. However, there are many light & medium oil plays throughout Alberta. And the industry is heavily fragmented, particularly among the junior and intermediate players. Ripe for consolidation. Additionally, massive amounts of international investor capital have flowed to players in the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins throughout the stabilization of global oil prices over the last 12 months. These outflows have left many Canadian junior and intermediate players undervalued by comparison. These low valuations coupled with a favorable USD / CAD exchange rate presents some meaningful value opportunities.

I’m compiling a list of interesting value plays in this space and will post. Again, this is a cyclical space. On top of that, they’re price takers in that they have no control over the price they receive for their product. Not for everybody, I recognize that. But if your thesis is that oil prices will continue to gradually creep higher yoy, then this space could be an interesting investment and yield some compelling returns for your portfolio.

Life and business is full of cycles. The wonderful thing about cyclicality is that it presents massive Opportunity.